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"…the value of an interpretation is judged by how well it accounts for the facts;
if contradicted by the facts, it must be abandoned."
— Peter Novick, That Noble Dream


Criminal Profiles
This is an archive of criminal profiles and related forensic reports collected from the public record, gathered from the media and publicly available court documents.

A separate archive of criminal profiles and related forensic reports from the case files of Brent E. Turvey is available here: Turvey cases.

No confidential case material has been or will be archived in this section.


  Case Profiler Source & Comments
Joyce Wishart murder FDLE  Juarez, A. "Police release profile of Wishart slaying suspect," Bradenton Herald, April 30, 2004
Prince George’s County -  serial arsonist profile BATF  Friess, J. "Landover fire linked to serial arsonist," The Gazette, December 22, 2003
Green River Killer John Douglas  Wilson, D. "Profiler can't recall why he said letter wasn't from Green River killer," Seattle Times, November 26, 2003

Press Release

Note: Mr. Douglas first denied he would have written such an opinion. When shown the opinion he wrote under his signature, he conceded it was his signature but said he remembered nothing about it. 

In his opinion at the time, he stated that the letter from Gary Ridgeway was an obvious fake and not from the Green River Killer. He was wrong.

John Douglas was the FBI's criminal profiler on that case.


Pack n' Pay Poisoner - Durban, NZ Micki Pistorious Williams, M. "Psychic's vision of the Pick 'n Pay poisoner," Independent Online, July 11, 2003

Press Release


Pack n' Pay Poisoner - Durban, NZ Raymond van Staden Singh, A. "South African supermarket poisoner could be ex-employee," New Zealand Herald, July 8, 2003

Press Release


Serial Rapist - Miami, FL FBI BAU Marrero, D. "Police intensify hunt for rapist in Miami," Sun Sentinel, June 14, 2003

Press Release


Baton Rouge Serial Killer; Derrick Todd Lee FBI BAU; Maurice Godwin; Brent Turvey THE FBI
Derrick Todd Lee was arrested on May 27th, 2003; the FBI provided a profile to the task force in this case in the Fall of 2002, and it was amended in January of 2003.

The FBI profile in this case was confusing, internally conflicted, borrowed heavily of concepts from Robert Hare's Without Conscience: Then Disturbing World of Psychopaths Among Us without reference, and ultimately inaccurate. 

It suggested that these killings were the work of a white male, between 25-35, who was a social outcast, "unsophisticated", did not get along well with women, was "awkward" socially around women, "impulsive"/ quick to temper and looking to "retaliate", and would have "bragged" to friends and co-workers about non-existent relationships. If in a relationship, he would be abusive and cold.

Derrick Todd Lee was in fact described as a religious 34 year old black male with an ex-wife and two kids who was also known as smooth, handsome and charming. He was also described as an outgoing "Casanova", who frequented the bars in St. Francisville and Solitude, wearing a cowboy hat, snakeskin boots, and a different girlfriend every night. He lived with a girlfriend while separated from his wife, but did not move from the area.

For more info, see: Naanes, M. "The two sides of Derrick Todd Lee," The Advocate, June 22, 2003

GEOPROFILING
An unsolicited geographic profile was offered by Maurice Godwin in this case. He reviewed newspaper clippings and plugged that information in to his geoprofiling software. His analysis, as in most cases, is a coin toss (50% accuracy), and was openly disavowed by the task force:

Goudelocke, R. "On the trail of a killer: 'Geographic profiler'
criticizes police
," The Advocate, January 15, 2003

Weston, K. "Police: Serial Killer In Louisiana Murders 5th Victim," The News4Jax.com, March 18, 2003

As quoted in the articles above, Maurice Godwin predicted that there was "about a 50 percent probability that the serial killer lives or works in an area centered on South Acadian Thruway and Interstate 10." 

Note: The map from the geoprofile that Godwin distributed to the media prior to the apprehension of the suspect was originally posted on this site. Dr. Godwin was subsequently asked for permission to use the map and he insisted that it not be posted, so we approached the news agency directly. It was then posted here with the permission of WDSU NewsChannel 6 and TheNewOrleansChannel.com; it clearly shows the wedge shaped pattern within which Godwin wrongly predicted the offender would be anchored. However, Godwin contacted the news agency and insisted that they not extend permission for his map to be shown here. Subsequently, it may not be shown on our site. It may still be found here: http://www.news4jax.com/news/2048011/detail.html. If that link goes down, please feel free to contact me directly.

However, Derrick Lee was not "anchored" in the "comfort zone" where Godwin predicted. Lee was in fact living in St. Francisville, LA; 30 miles north of Baton Rouge, not along I-10 and not to the south. He worked, lived, and frequented a Chevron station to refuel and drink beer on rural La. 61 near his home in St. Francisville.

Three things evidence the limitations and ultimate failure of Godwin's methodology here: Firstly, this method of predicting anchor points assumes a stationary offender with limited mobility - it does not work with offenders who travel for work or change jobs frequently. Secondly, it assumes that there are no other offenses to be linked in - if there are other unknown offenses it can change the outcome. None of these limitations were expressed to the media by Godwin. In fact he was, and paradoxically remains, quite insistant as to the absolute accuracy of his methods and opinions (Godwin went so far as to accuse the FBI of "dancing around so that when the case is solved they can fit him to the profile." This is a very strong accusation, and very ironic coming from Godwin. When one offers a 50/50 probability for the accuracy of their opinions, as Godwin has, I would agree that they are doing precisely that). Finally, the failure of this methodlogy to accurately predict an anchor point for the offender in this case is evident in the fact that he was all but permanently anchored outside of the wedge in the St. Francisville area. Being on the edge of the wedge or near the wedge is not a success; it is a failure. This because geoprofiling is a tool designed to help law enforcement prioritize suspects. Subsequently, their efforts would necessarily have been confined to the interior of the wedge, not its exterior or edge. Thankfully, others not confined to this type of thinking were involved, or we'd still be looking for the offender with no near hope of finding them.

Behavioral Evidence Analysis
Back in December of 2002, I was asked about this case, and suggested that the offender could hit anywhere along the interstate. Derrick Lee’s name was actually mentioned to the Multi-Agency Homicide Task Force last year by members of the Zachary Police Department for suspicion of murder, during a meeting with area law enforcement agencies to exchange information about criminal cases. But the task force was concentrating on the Baton Rouge area as an area where the offender was likely anchored. Derrick Lee was not asked to give a DNA sample at that time. 

Derrick Lee’s list of known or suspected victims now stands at 10 in the Baton Rouge (including Addis & Zachary) and Lafayette (including Breaux Bridge) areas. All of the attack locations are on or within a few minutes driving distance of I-10.

In the vein of investigative relevance, I suggested back in December, 2002 that the offender appeared to have a history of burglary from his offense behavior, and that investigators should examine past solved and unsolved burglary cases for linkage.

"Based on what he knows about the case, Turvey said these crimes are probably not the first for the serial killer. He said authorities are surely checking all unsolved and solved burglaries and sexual assaults along I-10."

Derrick Lee was arrested in November 1992 for burglary, and arrested again in July 1997 for burglary, criminal trespassing and two counts of being a peeping Tom.


Beltway Sniper - DC John Baeza, Pat Brown, Bo Dietl, James Fox, Jack Levin, Robert Ressler, Clint Van Zandt, Chris Witcomb Farhi, P. & Weeks, L. "With the Sniper, TV Profilers Missed Their Mark ," Washington Post, October 25, 2002

Note: John Baeza made no comments regarding any profile of the DC sniper to the media. He wrote the Post for a retraction and received it. 

Not mentioned in the article is the general accuracy of those belonging to the more evidence based/ deductive schools of thought.

Here are some of the inferences and speculations offered about the DC sniper prior to the arrest of the two suspects:

FBI / Inductive profilers (mixed, from different profilers)
- White male
- 25 to 40 years old
- Not a sniper and not likely military because of weapon choice (inaccurate round)
- Lives in or near the community
- No children
- Firefighter or construction worker
- Possible terrorist links
- Not a true spree killer because a true spree killer would have kept going south. (Robert Ressler, proclaiming that this is not the work of a spree killer on Oct. 9th, describes a true spree killer thus: 'They have no money, no employment. They kill for mobility. They kill for a car. They are on a desperate fugitive run that is bound to end."). See: Md. sniper's profile puzzles investigators, Wed Oct 9, 7:16 AM ET
(http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=676&ncid=716&e=19&u=/usato
day/20021009/ts_usatoday/4518755).

Deductive profiling (Brent Turvey, John Baeza, & Dr. Mike McGrath)
- No evidence of race
- No evidence of one or two offenders
- Anger motivation
- Cumulative rage from successive failures in personal life
- Straw that broke the camels back would be event in personal life such as divorce, custody battles, and / or loss of job.
- Would want to talk about offenses
- Case would most likely be solved by a tip from alert citizens
- No sniper training (not a very good shot)
- Possible second or third party involved
- Limited evidence of terrorist connection


Mailbox Bomber - Des Moines, IW Gregg McCrary; Clint Van Zandt Lee, H.K. "Pitfalls of Profiling: Conjuring up psyche of suspects more gamble than science - Profiles can help, but they often are proved wrong," San Francisco Chronicle, May 12, 2002

Press Release

Note: Finally, some decent journalism holding profilers accountable for their bogus statements to the press. With the arrest of Lucas John Helder, Van Zandt's profile is shown to be off on key points. Gregg O. McCrary steps in to defend Van Zandt's inaccurate profile, saying that anyone who claims to be 100% right all the time must be "smoking cigarettes without labels." We are remined of McCrary's testimony in the Sheppard case where he states that he's "never been wrong yet." (see: McKnight, K., "Expert's Opinion Challenged," Ohio Beacon Journal, April 1, 2000)


Mailbox Bomber - Des Moines, IW Clint Van Zandt Riha, C.A. "FBI Gives Mailbox Bomber Profile," Associated Press, May 4, 2002

Press Release

Note: This article appears inaccurate on two levels - first, Clint Van Zandt gives a profile, not the FBI (yes he is retired FBI, but he longer works for them or represents them), and second, the FBI (and specifically Clint Van Zandt) did not identify Unabomber; his brother turned him in.


Suburban Bomber BATF Staff "Authorities Release New Profile of Suburban Bomber," Associated Press, December 18, 2001

Press Release

Note: Again, maybe this is the same guy who is sending the anthrax letters. The profiles are remarkably similar. Really.


Suburban Bomber BATF Chait, M. & O'Connor, D. "Suburban Bomber Profile Report," ATF News, Press Release, December 17, 2001

Press Release by BATF

Note: Maybe this is the same guy who is sending the anthrax letters. The profiles are remarkably similar.


Anthrax letters Jim Fitzgerald Candiotti, S. & Mears, B. "FBI profiler: We will catch anthrax mailer," CNN, November 17, 2001

Lichtblau, E. "Loner Likely Sent Anthrax, FBI Says," LA Times, November 10, 2001

Press Release

Note: The profile is a presentation of the utterly obvious and the utterly rehashed. It's part of the boiler-plate. White male + loner. How many times do we have to read this nonsense before we realize that FBI profilers basically re-release the same few profiles over and over again? This is getting silly and it demeans the work of serious criminal profilers.

See: Ross, B. "He Sees Rapes As 'Dates': E. Side rapist a 'loser' - FBI," New York Daily News, April 27, 1998


East End Rapist Jim Fitzgerald Staff "East End Rape Suspect's Profile Refined," WTAE-TV - The Pittsburgh Channel, June 9, 2001

Press Release

Note: The specific suspect description provided in Mr. Fitzgerald's profile is from victim statements, not his behavioral analysis and inferences. Also, the article credits Fitzgerald with collecting evidence - this would be done by local law enforcement officials, not an FBI profiler. Fitzgerald's specific contribution is that the offender is "most likely a loner who is uncomfortable around women socially, an underachiever who takes little pride in his appearance and usually comes out at night." The first three items appear to be a feature of every single offender profile Mr. Fitzgerald gives (loner + underachiever/ loser + uncomfortable around women), none of which have any investigative relevance or utility at all. The fact that the offender takes little pride in his appearance would come from victim descriptions, and the fact that the offender comes out at night would be a feature of the time of the attacks. Bottom line: detectives don't need a profiler to tell them most of what Mr. Fitzgerald is telling them. Yet there are those who remain amazed and think that this kind of profiling must be helpful. I'd be interested to know what Allegheny County police detectives think at this point....

See: Ross, B. "He Sees Rapes As 'Dates': E. Side rapist a 'loser' - FBI," New York Daily News, April 27, 1998


Equivocal Death Evaluation Behavioural Analysis Unit (BAU) Staff "Why the FBI Says This Was Definitely a Case of Suicide," The East African, May 21, 2001

Press Release

Note: This appears to be the entire report (Equivocal Death Evaluation) prepared by the FBI's BAU, which consists of Unit Chief Larry G. Ankrom, Christopher Lawlor, Wayne D. Lord, Thomas M. Neer, Mary Ellen OToole, Mark Safarik and Armin A. Showalter. Note that this type of report is no longer referred to as an Equivocal Death Analysis (as was the report prepared in the case of Clayton Hartwig in the USS Iowa Incident which got the FBI in a whole lot of trouble). This reads like a confused psychological evaluation mixed with a crime reconstruction. None of the above are forensic scientists save Wayne Lord (who is a forensic entomologist and not a gunshot wound, bloodstain pattern or DNA expert), which is confusing, as forensic entomology plays no role in this case. This appears to be yet another instance of FBI Agents opining on psychological issues and crime reconstruction issues without any showing of expertise in either of these areas.


Unsub: Courtney Sconce homicide Sharon Pagaling-Hagan Montano, R. "PROFILER:KILLER IS NOT WHO HE SEEMS YOUNG MAN LIKELY HIDES VIOLENT SIDE," Sacramento Bee, March 2, 2001

Press Release

Note: The author of this profile gives detailed physical characteristics such as age, height and hair color. This information could only legitimately come from an eyewitness or physical evidence. If not... then there are problems (and those who know nothing of profiling might think that profilers can infer this kind of information from behavior or experience alone). Let's hope that's where this info is from, otherwise it could seriously jeopardize the investigation by over-narrowing investigative efforts (as many profiles have done in the past, to the detriment of cases like Zodiac in NY).

The author also provides the boilerplate personality characteristics of a psychopath (taken almost word for word from a copy of "Without Conscience" by Dr. Robert Hare, i.e...: egocentric, quick temper, parasitic lifestyle, articulate with good social skills). But without the supporting behavioral evidence from the crime. In any case, we did not need a profiler to provide this information, or, rather, no special knowledge, insight, or training is required here. Just a copy of Bob Hare's paperback. See www.hare.org for more sources.

I think it is legitimate to hope for, and strive for, more informed methodology in the future.


The Estate of Samuel H. Sheppard v. State of Ohio Gregg McCrary The Estate of Samuel H. Sheppard v. The State of Ohio

Date: December 1st, 1999

Criminal Investigative Analysis: Opinions relating to victim risk, crime reconstruction, motive, and the precise identity of the offender.

See also:

Affidavit: Affidavit prepared by Brent E. Turvey for the Estate of Sam Sheppard. Admissibility of profiling evidence for identification; review of Criminal Investigative Analysis composed by Gregg O. McCrary. Entered into evidence on Wednesday, March 29, 2000.


Central Florida - Serial Rapist Tom Davis, FDLE Staff "'He may stop but I would say not until he's caught.' -- Tom Davis FDLE agent" Associated Press, March 20th, 1999

Press Release


Andrew Cunanan Bill Tafoya "Cunanan fits the FBI definition of a serial killer" by: William L. Tafoya, Ph.D, No Date Given

Behavioral Assessment


Unsub: Dr. Barnett Slepian Gregg McCrary Robinson, M. "Profile of killer of abortion provider offered" Denver Post,
October 28th, 1998

Press Release

Note: This profile states in part that "..the suspect is 'probably employed, may have family, may have sort of a typical lifestyle, but those around him will know that he has this passion about the abortion movement.'" What is probably the case and may be the case are not very helpful to an investigation. And apparently this profiler has ruled out all other motives and suspects beyond those related to the victim's profession. In these cases it is very common to skip over the time consuming process of investigating the victim's family, friends, and co-workers. Too often this has resulted in a denial of justice.


Upper East Side Rapist Jim Fitzgerald Ross, B. "He Sees Rapes As 'Dates': E. Side rapist a 'loser' - FBI," New York Daily News, April 27, 1998

Press Release

Note: This profile is essentailly the same as profiles given by Mr. Fitzgerald on numerous other case in this archive.


Unabomber Mary O'Toole; Bill Tafoya Witkin, G. "Did the FBI ignore the `Tafoya profile'?," US News, November 17, 1997

Press Release


Unsub: Jonbenet Ramsey John Douglas Robinson, M. "Ramseys update own probe" Denver Post, July 24, 1997

Press Release


Unsub: Kristin & Kati Lisk FBI Published May 8, 1997, in the Free Lance-Star, of Fredericksburg, Va

Press Release


Jonbenet Ramsey case John Douglas Cabell, B. "Criticism abounds for report absolving Ramseys," CNN, January 31, 1997

Response to Douglas profile


Unabomber Michael Rustigan Howard, J. "Unabomber Suspect Matches FBI Profile in Most Respects," Associated Press, April 5, 1996

Press Release


Unsub: 'Five Points rapist' FBI Shearer, L. "'Five Points rapist' search going beyond A-C area," Athenaeum, Athens, Georgia, November 1, 1996

Press Release


Unabomber John Douglas Cole, R. "Unabomber will strike again, says FBI profiler," Associated Press, October 28, 1995

Press Release


Cradle Robbers Larry Ankrom Ankrom, L. & Lent, C. "Cradle Robbers: A Study of Infant Abductors," FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, September, 1995

Article


Unsub: League City, Texas SA David Gomez
(FBI)
"FBI points to serial killer in 4 cases," Associated Press, September 30, 1993

Press Release


Unabomber Bill Tafoya FBI Profile of the Unabomber by SA William L. Tafoya, PhD (ret.), August 5, 1993

Full Profile


Paul Bernardo &
Karla Holmolka
Gregg McCrary; James Wright FBI Profile of the Scarborough Rapist
November 17, 1988

Provided in an official report by Justice Archie Campbell; Full Profile


Unsub: Ginger Hayden homicide FBI Gordon, P. "FW Police Release Profile of Killer," Dallas Morning News, October 4, 1985

Press Release



Rape Investigation Handbook
Criminal Profiling, 2nd Ed.
Career Guide to Criminal Profiling
Journal of Behavioral Profiling

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